As the selection process winds down and the Demonstrator Class of DEMOfall 2008 takes shape, I find myself making the same comments to a companies presenting their product ideas. When that happens, it's a sure bet that the themes for the conference -- and the trends for the months ahead -- are taking shape.
Carla Thompson and I spent time together this morning going over these ideas, and we agree that these five ideas, arguably all parts of a greater whole, are the trends to watch for through this year and into 2009.
The Web 2.0 Cycle Has Come to a Close.For much of the last three years, technology industry pundits have hyped Web 2.0 as the Big Thing that fundamentally changes the business of the Web. We think it's pretty clear now that Web 2.0 has been more of a hype cycle than a business cycle.
Unlike the Dot Com cycle before it, the Web 2.0 phase hasn't created tremendous business value for entrepreneurs or their investors. But the social Web - the true definition, we think, of this most recent wave - has sparked tremendous innovation. It has given us the "operating systems" for social networks, the culture of conversation and engagement, the discipline of rapid and disruptive development, and the technology basis on which to build reliable, scalable Web applications. In short, it's delivered a platform on which to build the next phase of the Web.
Welcome to the Distributed Web. If Web 2.0 established the infrastructure and culture of the social Web, the next cycle will be all about delivering Web content and applications to the point of consumption. This next phase is not about aggregating content or visitors to a single Web site; it's about disseminating information and applications to the users where ever they may be - another Web site, a mobile device, a consumer electronics gadget.
The Distributed Web changes the game for content creators, Web advertisers and marketers, media sites, and consumers. As content and application providers focus on serving consumers where ever they are, they will need new techniques to syndicate content and audit their audience.
A Smarter Web. You know it's out there, that one piece of information you need is posted somewhere on the World Wide Web. You either have to get smarter at searching for it, or the Web has to get smarter about bringing good content to you, and still provide for the serendipity of discovery.
The evolution of the Web as a platform for work, community, and communications requires technology and design that make information discovery efficient.
Business Becomes Usual. The Web 2.0 cycle convinced consumers that Web content and applications are free, a business strategy that may have incited exploration and experimentation on the part of users, but it did little to build long-term sustainable businesses for entrepreneurs.
So many sites that based their business on advertising, it seems, neglected to realize that the richest consumer-goods advertisers aren't exactly lining up to place their ads in "long tail" media sites. And face it, even the largest media sites offer numbers and visitor stats that pale in comparison to the mainstream media with which most large consumer advertisers are comfortable.
That's not to say that the principles of design, openness, collaboration, and community spawned in the Web 2.0 cycle can't make for a profitable and substantial company. It just means that "free" isn't a business model.
That's why smart entrepreneurs are turning to business customers, who have come to expect Web 2.0 experiences. In recent weeks, we've seen many exciting companies that are taking a Web 2.0 approach to small business and enterprise applications. We've even seen a few great consumer applications that can be very successful subscription services. After all, consumers have always demonstrated that they will pay for value.
Transparency: The Foundation for Breakaway Adoption. It may be non-obvious to technology insiders, but not everybody - and by everybody we mean anyone who lives outside the tech centers of the U.S. - spends his/her day in a browser.
A large and largely quiet majority of Americans still turn to traditional media for their news. Their mobile phones aren't all that smart. Community means a gathering at the VFW hall. Trust is established with a look and a handshake. If Web-based businesses are to reach the very long tail of consumers world wide, it will be done on a foundation of trust and transparency.
Transparency of business model, transparency of identity, transparency of interest, transparency of relationships. We'd expect this to be an issue in social applications, yet as we've searched for companies to complete the demonstrator class, this theme has echoed across every market segment and has become a byword in our thinking about the next-generation Web.
